It began as an exceptional story about one Conservative candidate. Now, it has become a mess. At least six Conservatives are involved, as are a Labour candidate and six officers from the Met. Some are being investigated by the Gambling Commission, while others are not. This has led to many specific claims. They give the impression that political actors often bet on politics. The involvement of platforms like 20Bet adds another layer to this unfolding saga.

It’s worth being clear that there are some distinct categories of allegation.

First, there are the allegations against the two disowned Conservative candidates. There are also allegations against the Member of the Welsh Parliament. They are accused of placing bets on the July election.

They’ve said they will help the Gambling Commission. It is investigating whether the Gambling Act was broken.

The commission hasn’t named any individuals it’s investigating. Yet, it stated that using secret info to get an unfair betting edge may be cheating.

Broader Investigation into Election Betting Allegations

They assume he made a bet on the election’s timing. He is a member of Rishi Sunak’s protection team. He was suspended and arrested for allegedly breaking the law.

Yesterday, there were some different allegations. The party suspended Kevin Craig, a Labour candidate. This happened when it became clear that the Gambling Commission was looking at him, too. But they were looking at him over a different bet: a bet on the outcome in his constituency.

This is different because Mr. Craig didn’t bet on the election date but on the yet-unknown result in his seat.

It’s also interesting that Mr Craig’s case may say the Commission has broadened its inquiries.

We thought they were looking at wagers placed on a July election in the days before Mr Sunak’s announcement. They are looking at someone who placed bets on a different market. This fact may suggest that their probe is far wider now.

Then there’s Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary. He insists that he broke no rules earlier this year. On the election date, he placed a trio of bets, one successful and two unsuccessful.

He’s said he’s not under investigation by the Gambling Commission.

Political Betting and Its Implications

All cases have messy and uncertain specifics, and plenty of gaps can be filled in.

Yet, politicians and politicos are betting on politics. They do so if there is a common theme.

One Labour candidate contacted me after Mr Craig’s suspension. They told me they didn’t believe he would be the only candidate to have bet on the election.

Sir Ed Davey is the Liberal Democrat leader. He told the BBC today that he’d bet on his party’s fortunes at the 2010 election.

Are such bets a legal or regulatory matter? It seems unlikely, though that’s for the Gambling Commission to determine.

But, party leaders may now decide it’s bad for politicians to bet on politics.

As one outcome of this saga, you may see new rules on when politicians can gamble.